University of Tehran Press Academic Librarianship and Information Research 2783-4638 53 4 2020 02 20 Developing conceivable scenarios for the future of university research programs and their impact on university library services Developing conceivable scenarios for the future of university research programs and their impact on university library services 77 96 75875 10.22059/jlib.2020.294492.1448 FA Ali Moradmand Information and Knowledge Studies, Faculty of Education, Azarbijan Shaid Madani University, Tabriz, Iran Maryam Nakhoda Associate Professor, Department of Knowledge and Information Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Nader Naghshineh Department of Information Science and Knowledge Studies Alireza Noruzi Associate Professor, Department of Knowledge and Information Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Journal Article 2019 12 21 <strong>Objective</strong>: The research aims to identify key research factors, prepare research scenarios for universities and analyze the role of these scenarios on the services of academic libraries in the 2034 horizon.<br /><strong>Research Method</strong>: The present study was conducted with a futures research approach using the GBN method. Semi-structured interviews were used to identify key factors in the research. Thematic analysis was used to identify the themes in the qualitative data of the interview. To evaluate the impact of research scenarios on the services of academic libraries, academic library manager viewpoints have been surveyed.<br /><strong>Findings</strong>: A total of 24 key research factors were identified based on the experts' viewpoints through the thematic analysis of the interviews. The two factors identified with the greatest importance and uncertainty for formulating research scenarios are the status of international scientific and research cooperation, and the "government approach to research". Four scenarios for university research are presented: 1. The national and international research boom will create an open research mechanism in universities; 2. Failure to pay attention to national research will provide opportunities for an international research boom; 3. Support for national research; and 4. Stagnation of national and international research programs. A survey of university central library managers found that research scenarios and strategic plans had a direct impact on academic library services.<br /><strong>Originality</strong>: According to the authors, the present study was conducted for the first time both in Iran and abroad and has the necessary innovation and knowledge. <strong>Objective</strong>: The research aims to identify key research factors, prepare research scenarios for universities and analyze the role of these scenarios on the services of academic libraries in the 2034 horizon.<br /><strong>Research Method</strong>: The present study was conducted with a futures research approach using the GBN method. Semi-structured interviews were used to identify key factors in the research. Thematic analysis was used to identify the themes in the qualitative data of the interview. To evaluate the impact of research scenarios on the services of academic libraries, academic library manager viewpoints have been surveyed.<br /><strong>Findings</strong>: A total of 24 key research factors were identified based on the experts' viewpoints through the thematic analysis of the interviews. The two factors identified with the greatest importance and uncertainty for formulating research scenarios are the status of international scientific and research cooperation, and the "government approach to research". Four scenarios for university research are presented: 1. The national and international research boom will create an open research mechanism in universities; 2. Failure to pay attention to national research will provide opportunities for an international research boom; 3. Support for national research; and 4. Stagnation of national and international research programs. A survey of university central library managers found that research scenarios and strategic plans had a direct impact on academic library services.<br /><strong>Originality</strong>: According to the authors, the present study was conducted for the first time both in Iran and abroad and has the necessary innovation and knowledge. https://jlib.ut.ac.ir/article_75875_5cf454a7d1e863e0c9118f9a3f5f7756.pdf